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#StephenMiran

1 post1 participant0 posts today
Replied to Blogfeedser
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Blogfeedser

Dit bizarre idee komt uit een essay van een zekere #StephenMiran, Trumps hoofd voor de #CouncilOfEconomicAdvisers:
tinyurl.com/StephenMiransEssay

'#Trump will ask other governments to put themselves into "red", "green" and "yellow" boxes - ie choose to be foes, friends or adjacent players. "Green" countries will get military protection and tariff relief, but must embrace a currency accord. "Yellow" or "red" nations might cut transactional deals.'

Analyse van #FinancialTimes:
archive.is/XeFZa

Economen beschrijven het plan als "mad". FINANCIAL TIMES: No wonder. Viewed through the prism of recent mainstream economic thinking, there are huge headwinds. First, joint currency interventions are at odds with free market ideas and in recent years as unfashionable as flares. Second, history suggests that intervention works best with trusted allies. That was on display in the Plaza Accord. But French leaders are already indicating their resistance at doing Washington's financial bidding. China could be far more truculent. Third, tariffs usually strengthen currencies. Indeed Scott Bessent, Donald Trump's Treasury secretary, told the Manhattan Institute last year that two-thirds of any impact from tariffs was typically seen in currency gains. That makes devaluation seem contradictory.
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FINANCIAL TIMES: Nor are all of Trump's advisers as terrified of stock market falls or recession as some critics hope, I am told. On the contrary, they have always known that tariffs will unleash some initial economic pain and want to get this out of the way early in Trump's tenure. Indeed some officials actually see an upside. They think a recessionary shock will force other countries to the negotiating table faster and reduce US interest rates, while lower asset prices would counter the excessive financialisation that has blighted the US economy, particularly if a weaker dollar boosts industry.
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FINANCIAL TIMES: "Trump's team cares much more about the real economy in the medium-to-long term than the financial economy in the short term," says Zoltan Pozsar, the founder and CEO of Ex Uno Plures, a research provider, who published a "Mar-a-Lago" report cited by Miran. "It's about Main Street, not Wall Street." Third, while Miran's essay warns that tariffs might initially strengthen the dollar, he thinks Washington can offset this. That is because the Mar-a-Lago concept is about more than "just" currencies. Instead, one idea floating around is that other nations will be "encouraged" to swap holdings of dollars, short-term Treasuries or even gold for long-term or perpetual dollar bonds suitable for repurchase deals at the Federal Reserve.
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FINANCIAL TIMES: Fourth, even if Trump's actions are alienating allies, his advisers hope to force compliance with any accord through tariff shocks and other threats. More specifically, Bessent says Trump will ask other governments to put themselves into "red", "green" and "yellow" boxes - ie choose to be foes, friends or adjacent players. "Green" countries will get military protection and tariff relief, but must embrace a currency accord. Some "yellow" or even "red" - nations might cut transactional deals. There could be two stages with Mar-a-Lago, the thinking goes: one with allies and the second with others.
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CiieePiiee

@kattascha ich empfehle die Lektüre des Artikels von #stephenMiran aus 11.2024 übersetzt: "Leitfaden für die Umstrukturierung
des globalen Handelssystems" hudsonbaycapital.com/documents hier steht das Drehbuch. Nach den Zöllen kommt der Entzug des US Sicherheitsschirms für alle die nicht spuren. Es geht um d. erzwungene Abwertung d. US Dollars, mit d. sich Trump auf Kosten aller entschulden wird. Das ist kein Handelskrieg sondern ein Wirtschaftskrieg. Komplettschaden für das #wto u. #Faschismus pur

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