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Mastodon will lose lots of users to Bluesky, but the rest of the Fediverse won't; CW: long (over 1,200 characters), Fediverse meta, Twitter mentioned, Elon Musk mentioned by name, Bluesky mentioned
That'll be those who have only been on Mastodon and mostly big general-purpose instances because it was the closest thing to "Twitter without Musk" with open registration. The same people who staunchly keep using Mastodon like they used to use Twitter before. And Bluesky has given them the gift of an open but still central registration without having to pick an instance. I mean, it has yet to go fully decentral.
So as of now, Bluesky really is "literally Twitter without Musk" as expected.
The results I expect are mastodon.social no longer being the most active instance and Mastodon itself no longer being twice as active as the whole rest of the Fediverse combined, not nearly. For all the other Fediverse projects, nothing much will change. They've always been completely unknown on Twitter. So those who have never wanted anything different from Twitter still sit on the same general-purpose Mastodon instance with a domain that hints at Mastodon. But I guess not for much longer.
#Long #LongPost #CWLong #CWLongPost #FediMeta #FediverseMeta #CWFediMeta #CWFediverseMeta #Mastodon #Bluesky
re: Mastodon will lose lots of users to Bluesky, but the rest of the Fediverse won't; CW: long (over 1,200 characters), Fediverse meta, Twitter mentioned, Elon Musk mentioned by name, Bluesky mentioned
@jupiter_rowland why do you think this exactly? It was already trivial to get an invite for Bluesky for a while if you actually wanted to. I doubt existing Mastodon users will amount to hundreds of thousands moving there, that is a huge number to claim for a service that only has hundreds of thousands total active users anyway. X is the main service we should expect to keep bleeding users, if this only becomes a fight between the small alternatives the migration is dead.
Many have never settled in. They've never adjusted to Mastodon's culture nor the overarching culture of the greater Fediverse. They keep using Mastodon like Twitter, and they're waiting for either the whole Fediverse to become more like pre-Musk Twitter or something that's more like pre-Musk Twitter to come along.
You can tell them by staunchly refusing to use hashtags and add content warnings and alt-text. The worst still speak of tweeting and re-tweeting because they can't even be bothered to get used to Mastodon's lingo.
The reason why they didn't get an invite was either because that felt like too much of a hassle in comparison with just installing the app and creating an account or because they have applied for an invite, but still haven't received it.
Now that they don't need an invite, they can easily jump ships and join something that's oh-so-much easier to use with its Twitter clone UI and its fully-featured official app that bears the same name as the service itself and not having to choose an instance and not having to write content warnings and alt-texts and not even having hashtags in the first place and a secret-sauce algorithm that feeds them posts without them having to do anything for it.
#Long #LongPost #CWLong #CWLongPost #FediMeta #FediverseMeta #CWFediMeta #CWFediverseMeta #Mastodon #Bluesky
@jupiter_rowland got BlueSky for some time, but to be honest, I like #Mastodon much much more.